NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks
Each week of the NFL survivor pool, you pick one team to win. Pick correctly and you advance, pick wrong and you're out. The rankings below combine Vegas spread data with rest-of-season team strength to surface the smartest picks for the week, not just the obvious favorites.
Spreads and ROS Rankings were last updated: Aug. 28, 2026 @ 02:05 AM ET
Top Football Survivor Pool Picks
The number one goal of any Survivor pool is to survive and move on to next week. It can be easy to get through the early weeks by picking the strongest teams with the largest spreads, but this is short-sighted and might leave you wanting in later weeks.
To excel late into the season, the best strategy early on is to look for teams ranked relatively low over the rest of the season, and identify which of those have best shot of winning this week. Basically, pick the worst team with the best chance of winning.
Our method is two-fold:
- Rank teams from strongest to weakest over the outlook of the season to identify the mid and low tier (weaker) teams
- From those, look for teams with the most comfortable spreads this week
And then, truly, we have to use our best judgement. Vegas is pretty good at this game, but when you can only pick one team you have to consider: who haven't I picked yet? Do I trust these guys?
Here, you'll find the data you need to make a decision. That decision, of course, is up to you.
NFL Survivor: Week 1 Picks
These are the top 3 recommended survivor pool picks for week 1. Look for a team you haven't picked yet, and the matchup you trust the most.
This week, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the best odds of winning amongst lower-ranked teams with a spread of -7.5. However, there are some other weaker teams who may not be viable options in future weeks that are also worth your consideration.
Recommended Picks
Las Vegas Raiders
vs MIA (-3.5)
ROS: 30/32
Pittsburgh Steelers
vs ATL (-3.0)
ROS: 19/32
Jacksonville Jaguars
vs CLE (-7.5)
ROS: 17/32
Risky Picks / Coin Flips
Risky Picks are low-ranked, low-spread favorites (usually no better than -3). These are weak teams already. Their spread is too narrow to give a lot of confidence, even though they're still favored to win their matchup this week.
But with great risk comes great reward. Using one of these teams early in the season may give you an advantage later by preserving some stronger teams.
- TEN vs NYJ (-2.5)
All Week 1 Spreads With Rest Of Season Pick 'Em Rankings
If you've already picked the above teams, or want to make better informed decisions in your Pick 'Em pool across the leagues, here are the spreads for week 1 with ROS values and ranks.
ROS Value is a normalized, composite ranking of a team's schedule and matchups for remainder of the season.
Spreads are updated from Vegas periodically.
| Team | Spread | ROS Value | ROS Rank | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 LAR
|
-3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | SF |
 SEA
|
-3.5 | 0.91 | 2.0 | NE |
 DET
|
-7.0 | 0.91 | 2.0 | NO |
 BAL
|
-3.5 | 0.86 | 4.0 | IND |
 SF
|
3.5 | 0.86 | 4.0 | LAR |
 BUF
|
-1.5 | 0.84 | 6.0 | HOU |
 PHI
|
-5.5 | 0.84 | 6.0 | WAS |
 KC
|
-2.5 | 0.82 | 8.0 | DEN |
 CIN
|
-3.5 | 0.81 | 9.0 | TB |
 GB
|
1.5 | 0.75 | 10.0 | MIN |
 CHI
|
-2.5 | 0.75 | 10.0 | CAR |
 HOU
|
1.5 | 0.74 | 12.0 | BUF |
 LAC
|
-10.5 | 0.74 | 12.0 | ARI |
 DEN
|
2.5 | 0.74 | 12.0 | KC |
 NE
|
3.5 | 0.72 | 15.0 | SEA |
 DAL
|
-2.5 | 0.69 | 16.0 | NYG |
|
JAX
|
-7.5 | 0.66 | 17.0 | CLE |
 TB
|
3.5 | 0.62 | 18.0 | CIN |
|
PIT
|
-3.0 | 0.59 | 19.0 | ATL |
 MIN
|
-1.5 | 0.58 | 20.0 | GB |
 IND
|
3.5 | 0.55 | 21.0 | BAL |
 NYG
|
2.5 | 0.53 | 22.0 | DAL |
 WAS
|
5.5 | 0.49 | 23.0 | PHI |
 NO
|
7.0 | 0.49 | 23.0 | DET |
 ATL
|
3.0 | 0.41 | 25.0 | PIT |
 CAR
|
2.5 | 0.41 | 25.0 | CHI |
 CLE
|
7.5 | 0.4 | 27.0 | JAX |
 TEN
|
-2.5 | 0.37 | 28.0 | NYJ |
 NYJ
|
2.5 | 0.31 | 29.0 | TEN |
|
LV
|
-3.5 | 0.26 | 30.0 | MIA |
 MIA
|
3.5 | 0.21 | 31.0 | LV |
 ARI
|
10.5 | 0.0 | 32.0 | LAC |